Beware USDJPY seasonality in March and April
History doesn’t always repeat, but past years have shown that USDJPY seasonality in the March/April time frame are important, as these have provided important pivot points in major USDJPY trends of the...
View ArticleEURUSD tactical and big picture thoughts
EURUSD took out tactical resistance today on Weidmann's tiresome comments, but then reversed sharply lower, which keeps bearish tactical hopes alive for the moment.
View ArticleAUDUSD and FOMC Meetings
While we ping-pong on the fate of the Cyprus decision, let’s not forget tomorrow’s FOMC, which can come and go with a relative whimper or a bang, depending on developments – particularly for the...
View ArticleGBPUSD awaits tactical reversal confirmation or rejection
GBPUSD reversed off a critical area as we see whether 1.5200 resistance holds. Tactically, the reversal is disappointing for those looking for a squeeze higher, but the situation remains in limbo.
View ArticleUSDJPY ready for bigger correction sequence?
If USDJPY has completed a 5-wave rally sequence, we may be in for a three-wave correction scenario in the coming weeks.
View ArticleGBPUSD: key resistance held – 1.5000 test in store?
Key strategic resistance in GBPUSD is so far holding as the view may shift lower in coming days again to the psychologically important 1.5000 area if the US dollar can catch a wider bid.
View ArticleUSDCAD has slipped to important support zone
This “consolidation” in USDCAD from its 1.0300+ highs has been going on for a month now – it’s nearing the final near term zone of support here ahead of this week’s key events.
View ArticleEURUSD and GBPUSD – how high does the squeeze take us?
EURUSD has squeezed all the way through 1.3000 and GBPUSD through 1.5300. The longer term outlook hasn’t changed as I merely look for where this consolidation move will take us before we turn around...
View ArticleG-10 FX Mega-charts update
Perhaps appropriate here at the end of the week to show how the G-10 currencies are trading relative to one another as AUD scratched out recent high and JPY recent low
View ArticleWhich is wrong – USDNOK or energy markets?
USDNOK has failed to take the lead from the huge sell-off in energy prices. History shows that this divergence is not likely to last long – with the most likely path one of USDNOK higher
View ArticleNOK looking a bit vulnerable
In addition to the mention of USDNOK yesterday in lieu of the huge sell-off in energy prices, it’s also noteworthy that EURNOK is well back above 7.50 in today’s trade.
View ArticleGBPUSD still in limbo – awaiting break for confirmation
GBPUSD bears appeared to have an argument with yesterday’s pattern reversal, but today’s action throws things back into doubt a bit, as does the fact that we’ve yet to break critical downside levels.
View ArticleGBP to get the upper hand on EUR again?
EURGBP reversed higher on Friday in response to Fitch’s downgrade of UK sovereign debt, but GBP is pulling back higher against the single currency and could continue to do so.
View ArticleThree USD chart impressions after a wacky day
NZDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD all had interesting days today, each for different reasons as we look for whether the USD has put in a local low here or will crumble further.
View ArticleAUDJPY to fall 800 pips or 1500 pips from here?
If the main really sequence in AUDJPY is behind us, we could be looking at a downwave of large, and potentially epic proportions from here, the C-wave of a three wave correction.
View ArticleEURNOK and NOKSEK after Norges Bank
A big day for EURNOK and NOKSEK as Norges Bank leans against the idea that it will ease again. NOK could rally further on the back of today's developments.
View ArticleUSDJPY more ready than ever for a try at 100
If government bonds stay on the defensive after today's five-year low in weekly jobless claims, we may be looking at a probe above 100 in USDJPY.
View ArticleUSDCAD mulling a turnaround
The USD rally has actually been generally outdone by the CAD rally of late – but USDCAD may be ready to turn back higher if key support remains intact.
View ArticleEURUSD chart impressions
We have a look at EURUSD here in the big picture and a bit more locally for where things stand and where the pair may be going next as it made a significant attempt to take out 1.3000 this week.
View ArticleEURJPY likely to commit one way or another soon
EURJPY is in a delicate pivot zone that could see it swing either way – with downside volatility potential likely greater than the upside potential – but the bears need to make a statement first.
View ArticleMarket going to make it easy or difficult for EURUSD bears?
The head and shoulders set-up in EURUSD is compelling – almost too compelling, in fact. A similar set-up last year shows us how difficult the market can make it at key formation break points.
View ArticleEURJPY – key pivot area in play
EURJPY has been back and forth across the key 131.15 pivot area as we look for whether the break here is for real. If not, today’s activity still softens the uptrend.
View ArticleUSDJPY dumps through 100 on ugly US data
USDJPY is slicing lower, taking out layers of stops below the psychologically important 100.00 level after a shocker of a weak US ISM number.
View ArticleEURJPY is one to watch post-ECB
EURJPY could steal the focus from USDJPY tomorrow if the ECB proves particularly dovish.
View ArticleUSD under massive strain ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report
Hope is rapidly fading for the USD bulls after today’s developments, led by USDJPY smashing down through the 55-day moving average in late European trading. The greenback will need an enormous rally...
View ArticleFour charts to consider for next week.
An epic reversal in USDJPY sets up an interesting test for that pair and for the USD more broadly next week.
View ArticleUSDCHF looking ugly
USDCHF continues to look heavy after the BoJ failed to put a lid on the JPY and as noise makes the round that the SNB will not do anything next week.
View ArticleNZDUSD and AUDUSD up to typical late Friday mischief
The liquidity in the Antipodeans gets rather iffy late on Fridays, as Australia and New Zealand are well into their weekend revelry. And it shows on the charts.
View ArticleEURGBP looks ready to challenge higher
The bull move in EURGBP never really went away and the pair may be simply have been coiling in a tight range for a move higher in the coming days, assuming tomorrow’s BoE Minutes don’t throw up any...
View ArticleEURUSD lines in the sand are clear
Key moving averages and the price are converging again and possibly setting up a 1.3000 test in the very near future for EURUSD after the shocking US confidence number.
View ArticleThorough look at AUDUSD
AUDUSD looks like it is at a local pivot area here as political turmoil breaks over the country – so let’s have a look at where we stand and the prospects for the pair from here.
View ArticleEURGBP eyeing 0.8600 once again...
EURGBP has had quite an affair with the 0.8600 level over the last couple of months, but the latest rally may finally lead to the pair pulling through that level and testing the highs for the year.
View ArticleECB Meetings and EURUSD in 2013
ECB meetings have been very important event risks for EURUSD in 2013 - often setting the direction for weeks at a time in their wake.
View ArticleEURGBP to finally see resolution tomorrow
EURGBP has spent months in a tiny range - it's time for the currency pair to pick a direction - and what better occasion than tomorrow's BoE and ECB meetings to act as the trigger?
View ArticleStill looking for USDJPY correction potential
USDJPY blasted higher today in reaction to the US employment report, but the chart structure still suggests the risk of a very large C-wave correction to challenge recent lows.
View ArticleEURAUD rally at risk from positioning
A look at the CFTC report on US currency futures positioning shows a huge implied long position in EURAUD. This suggests that the pair is at risk of a large positioning-driven correction, even within...
View ArticleEURUSD lining up for a big sell-off
EURUSD is nearing the obvious 1.2750-1.2800 neckline area after crumbling from the 1.3400 plus top. Zooming out to the weekly and monthly charts suggests potential for significant downside.
View ArticleG-10 FX Megacharts Update
Here's our irregular look at each of the G-10 currencies versus an evenly weighted basket of their G-10 peers for the useful long term perspective.
View ArticlePricing EURUSD – a few charts
A look at a few charts that size up the recent backup in EURUSD relative to other indicators show that upside in the currency pair looks exaggerated unless Bernanke doubles down on dovishness next week.
View ArticleEURUSD upside argument still in place
Fundamentals aside, the squeeze is still in place until proven otherwise in EURUSD, with the possibility of a large extension if this 1.3200 area holds in the near term.
View ArticleAUDUSD still in a pivot zone despite reversal
AUDUSD made a show of a reversal today after the ugly data out of China overnight, but the reversal hasn’t been significant enough to call for an end of the squeeze potential just yet.
View ArticleAir getting thin for further NZD rise
The kiwi rally is impressive and is built on the view that the RBNZ has the most potential for hiking rates among all the G10 currencies – but one key indicator suggests a strong headwind for a further...
View ArticleNOKSEK at lowest levels in years. Can SEK keep trucking?
NOKSEK is nearing its lowest levels in years well below 1.10. The story must be increasingly 'perfect' for SEK to continue to outperform its Scandie counterpart.
View ArticleToo much NOKSEK pain on Norway's GDP?
Norway’s GDP number came in weaker than expected, pushing NOK back near the lowest levels in NOKSEK in years but the selling is perhaps getting overdone.
View ArticleAUDUSD: Where can this squeeze take us?
AUD shorts continue to suffer as the last local resistance areas come into view for AUDUSD. Here, we take a look at the bigger picture and where this rally may take us if resistance falls.
View ArticleIs AUDJPY still the most volatile beast of the G7?
AUDJPY looks quiet – but don’t be fooled as this pair is traditionally the G7 currency pair capable of the most brutal fits of volatility. The 90.00 pivot zone could be the event horizon for a wakeup...
View ArticleFX Chart Video: USD majors this week
The USD has made a considerable move over the last couple of days. This video looks at some of the major USD charts and the implications for the week(s) to come.
View ArticleVideo FX Chart Check
Today I check in on a few charts and technical levels of import in the coming days as the ECB and BoE meet tomorrow. The US preliminary Q3 GDP figures are also up tomorrow and of course we have the...
View ArticleG10 Megacharts Update: USD still rallying
For a longer term perspective on forex markets, here's a look at John Hardy's charts for each of the G10 currencies against an evenly-weighted basket of the remainder of their G10 peers. USD is still...
View ArticleShort EURJPY may be highest octane trade post-ECB
EURJPY is slipping again after Draghi's press conference gets underway. If the bond market continues to firm, we could see a second sell-off wave in EURJPY.
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